Why DOS cannot Predict Visa Bulletin Accurately??
The Department of State knows the number of I140 petitions which have been approved But predicting the demand to move the visa bulletin is a very tough job .Every years approx 2800 visa numbers are available for each country for Employment category ,this 2800 visa number per country also includes the family members.
Below are the list of issues which DOS faces and there is no way to get accurate predictions for visa bulletin as its completely a Blind spot for them.
- An employee whose I140 is approved in EB3 may port to EB2 (or eb2 to eb1,eb3 to eb1 else any other category) either through same employer or a different one. But the employer fails to withdraw the EB3 petition. Then the DOS has no clue of the same and the duplicate count remains in the DOS system..
- Employee changes jobs and the new employer files a new GC petition, but the old employer does not withdraw the I-140 . Again DOS has no clue about the same hence duplicate count is added to the system..
- The Employee is died. But the employer failed to withdraw petition . DOS has no clue of the same. The count of approved petition still remains.
4.Employee returns back to his home country, and the employer did not withdraw the Petition nor the employee is interested in coming to USA. DOS has no clue of the same and the approved petition count remains in the system.
- Employee has got married and has an I140 approved but DOS has no clue how many family member will be added for green card at the time of processing I1485 .
- Employer has gone out of Business and fails to withdraw the petitions. DOS has no clue of the same.
- Employee has a family member who sponsored them for a green card under Family category and they don’t need their employment-based petition anymore. DOS has no clue of the same.
- Employee came to US on work visa and married a US citizen and hence they don’t need to continue the employer provided GC petition. DOS has no clue of the same.
- Employees fails to know that their dates are Current and file their petition at a later date. DOS predicts all applications to come in when its Current but practically lots of applications are received at a very later date causing DOS unable to predict demand.
- DOS cannot predict the number of applications that might be revoked or denied due to fraud, criminal, and medical issues.
These dark territory makes the USCIS and the Department of State unable to predict the demand and they do not want to over move the visa bulletin rapidly which may cause an unavailability of visa numbers during the end of the fiscal year. Hence they are very cautious in moving the dates very slowly.
Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State did say recently that DOS will work closely with USCIS to ensure the dates are predicted and moved more accurately .We will have to wait and watch how the visa bulletin modernization will take place and if the accuracy in visa bulletin will be achieved, Until then surprises and retrogression in visa cut off dates are here to stay.